Yesterday we took time to visit our nearby Apple store to check on the new iPhone Air (yes, it’s a very nice device) and was surprised by the high bustle of activity at the store despite it being 2:00 on a Wednesday afternoon. We were also struck by the number of folks saying to the salesperson, “We’re here to get new phones.” There were also numerous visitors trying on Apple Watches. In prior visits, we’ve seen no one perusing the watch selection.

Today we looked at observed traffic to Apple’s geofenced stores (that’s locations that are street facing single level). As shown, the upcoming release of the Air (September 19th) was already driving increased traffic even before becoming available, and since available, an additional bump in traffic. As a reminder, the iPhone 16 came out last September. Given the enthusiasm and the broadly favourable product reviews (and for the Watch and AirPods), we expect this Christmas to be Apple dominated, and given that consumers are still being tight with their spending, that may cause other categories of gifts (and retailers) to be challenged as has happened in the past.