We have all been seeing that with each passing year the panic of shopping on Black Friday has been subsiding. No more stories of pepper-spraying or trampling each other to be the first to grab the best deals.
The foot traffic is corroborating that sentiment. As seen in the first graphic below, the Black Friday retail store visits are showing a clearly declining trend. There were fewer Black Friday store visits this year than during the pandemic! That says a lot
So, what happened? Did the American consumer decided to stop shopping for the holidays? Somehow we would doubt such a conclusion. Indeed, the run up to the Thanksgiving week shows that consumer spending is increasing every year. A lot! We hazard a guess that this is a result of the retailers spreading their offers and advertising to capture a wider range of dates. The graph below, from our SpendView™ product, shows the Online and Brick & Mortar retail purchases across the US for the 2 weeks before the Thanksgiving week:
Aside from the astounding figure of the billions of dollars in consumer spending both on and off-line, what we can clearly see is:
• Online shopping is steadily growing. The huge 55% spike during the pandemic, from 2019 to 2020, was not an aberration, but taught the consumers how to shop online. And they never looked back after that!
• There is no substitute for a stroll at the shops. Brick & Mortar sales are growing too! Despite the slightly negative trend in 2024, as seen in the chart below, nobody can claim that we have all become avatars and are only shopping online. Are we the only ones that think this is a good thing?
• Overall consumer spending is up! We will reserve final judgement on this until the full holiday data are in, but up to now it is clear that retail spending sentiment is alive and kicking, thank you very much. In fact, spending has been growing steadily every year, although some of that is also attributable to inflation.
Watch this space for more insights as the holiday season is progressing!
