May 14, 2025
Categories:
Corporate & Supply Chain
Thomas Paulson
7 minute read

DaVita – The dialysis provider gets hit by the flu and a cyber-attack. Lowers its outlook on volume for the year

DaVita, the dialysis treatment company, had a soft Q1 as volume (treatments per day) in the US declined -0.6%, which was below management’s plan due to a number of external impacts. The KPI also decelerated QoQ by -30 bps, which compares to visits (Advan) slowing by -40 bps on a days-adjusted basis. Dynamics impacting Q1 were a harsh flu season and disruptive weather in Jan / Feb which resulted in missed treatments. The harsh flu season also resulted in more flu deaths, which will be a headwind to volume for the remainder of the year. However, as shown in the chart below, Q2 has started worse and that stems from a cyber attack on April 12th which disrupted business operations and volume. While most of its operational systems are back up and running, not all. Based upon all of these factors, management lowered its guidance on US annual volume to roughly a -0.5% YoY decline. DaVita’s business and US volumes are typically very smooth with low-single-digit volume growth, and so this is a deviation to the historical cadence. I will be watching for improvement.

Thomas Paulson

Thomas has been Head of Market Insights since January 2025. Previously, he served as Director of Research and Business Development at Placer.ai, where he was instrumental in providing actionable insights derived from location analytics and the path for expansion into new verticals. His extensive background also includes two decades as a buyside analyst and portfolio manager at Alliance Bernstein, Cornerstone, and others. Prior to that tenure he worked as an economist. Thomas also currently serves as the Co-Chair of the National Association for Business Economics Retail / Consumer Roundtable.