July 17, 2025
Categories:
Corporate & Supply Chain
Thomas Paulson
7 minute read

Frito-Lay on the upswing as convenience store visits improve

We wrote an insights piece two weeks ago about the improving traffic into convenience and gas station stores (C&G), specifically from the pump pad into the store, and noted that it was a favorable development for CPG suppliers as well as the major operators, Casey’s Stores, Chevron, 7-Eleven, and Circle-K, etc. Today brought Pepsi’s Q2 earnings results, and lo and behold, the trend improved for Frito-Lay’s savory snacks business (Doritos, Tostitos, Lay’s, Fritos, etc.) with the volume decline easing from -4% in Q1 to -2% in Q2 and carbonated soft drink volume inflecting from a -1% decline to a +1% increase.

In its prepared remarks, Pepsi said, “We were encouraged to see an improvement in organic volume trends for our convenient foods business as the quarter progressed – with an improvement in our market share trends in key subcategories as we stepped up commercial activities by offering good value to consumers, more-focused innovation activity, and heightened in-market execution. Our North America beverage business also saw an improvement in organic volume trends versus the previous quarter with good performance in trademark Pepsi…” In other words, the improvement was largely where we thought it would be; importantly, C&G is a higher-margin channel for its business, and so, consistent volume growth in C&G is critical for Pepsi’s long-term profit growth and margin expansion.

Thomas Paulson

Thomas has been Head of Market Insights since January 2025. Previously, he served as Director of Research and Business Development at Placer.ai, where he was instrumental in providing actionable insights derived from location analytics and the path for expansion into new verticals. His extensive background also includes two decades as a buyside analyst and portfolio manager at Alliance Bernstein, Cornerstone, and others. Prior to that tenure he worked as an economist. Thomas also currently serves as the Co-Chair of the National Association for Business Economics Retail / Consumer Roundtable.