April 1, 2020
Categories:
Commercial Real Estate
Valantis Aristides
7 minute read

Industrial property effect of COVID-19

As we continue our trip across the property types analyzing the change in foot traffic using Advan data and the impact
of Covid-19 on commercial real estate, Eigen 10 advisors examines the industrial property sector this week. The data
this week comes from the Port of LA and an industrial warehouse park outside of Chicago.


The industrial park is a mix of food distribution, light manufacturing, auto part distribution and other uses. We picked
this park since it has a mix of critical and non-critical components within the distribution chain.


Foot traffic at both the port and industrial park was down 17% this February compared to February last
year1. Foot traffic was already down in both locations due to the virus, having fallen 20% at
the port and 14% at the industrial park in January. The impact at the port continued into March with foot traffic down
19% the first week and 29% the second week. In contrast, foot traffic at the park started to rebound with the decline in
the first week of March down to 6% and 13% in the second week of March.


Advan: Industrial Park traffic


By the third week, restrictions had been put in place in both California and Illinois with regards to non-essential
workers. Retail and restaurant sales had slowed dramatically. You can see the impact on foot traffic in both locations
-- down more than 40% compared to the same week the previous year and that trend continued last week.


There is still foot traffic in both locations as ships arrive at the port to be unloaded and food distribution to
supermarkets and other food retailers remains strong. However, other types of retail sales have plummeted, and a lot of
manufacturing has stopped or slowed.


As China and other parts of Asia begin to rebound, there will likely be some increase in activity, though many retailers
have limited or halted new shipments. Depending on what products are stored in the warehouses, activity will be
impacted; traffic will remain strong for essential uses but greatly reduced for those deemed non-essential.


As the economy begins to recover and retailers prepare for the peak fall and Christmas season, port traffic should start
to return towards previous levels. Depending on how the virus impacts both economic growth and any changes to supply
chains, returning to previous levels may happen sooner or later than expectations. Warehouse activity will respond
quickly to the pace of economic growth.


Advan and Eigen10 Advisors are working to track and analyze the data in a broader and more long-term indexed fashion. For additional analysis of your property contact
Eddy Hribar at

contact Eddy

.


1 The analysis used the first 28 days of February 2020 to account for the additional day in the month due to Leap Year.

Valantis Aristides

Valantis has been focused on product management across B2B and B2C SaaS and data analytics, specializing in translating complex data into clear, actionable insights that inform business and investment decisions, product innovation, and customer engagement. His experience includes analyzing mobility trends, credit card transactions, and alternative data to uncover patterns that shape strategy and highlight market opportunities.