October 2, 2025
Categories:
Corporate & Supply Chain
Thomas Paulson
7 minute read

Tesla – Much stronger demand in the US and no signs of an air-pocket

As previewed, Tesla’s Q3 global deliveries (+2%) were far ahead of expectations and Q2’s rate (-13%). Reported deliveries of 497K where 12% above the sell-side consensus of 443K. Given 3rd party reports of sales being down in Europe (-20% ish) and China (-HSD ish), the US was up strongly as Advan’s manufacturing and showroom data suggested. September domestic sales are estimated to be +6% per Morgan Stanley’s analyst. As shown, visits remained robust into the end of the month and the expiration of the $7500 tax credit. That suggests that that Tesla found a way to make “deliveries” quickly. We’ll come back to the story at the end of October to see show what the air-pocket looks like; however, given that the plants are still running hard, there may not be much of an air-pocket. That’s curious and unexpected!



Thomas Paulson

Thomas has been Head of Market Insights since January 2025. Previously, he served as Director of Research and Business Development at Placer.ai, where he was instrumental in providing actionable insights derived from location analytics and the path for expansion into new verticals. His extensive background also includes two decades as a buyside analyst and portfolio manager at Alliance Bernstein, Cornerstone, and others. Prior to that tenure he worked as an economist. Thomas also currently serves as the Co-Chair of the National Association for Business Economics Retail / Consumer Roundtable.