October 8, 2025
Categories:
Corporate & Supply Chain
Thomas Paulson
7 minute read

Tesla – Now we know why there may be no air pocket

In last week’s note on Tesla’s better-than-expected deliveries, we shared that observed activity at Fremont and Austin showed no slowdown, despite an expected air pocket in demand following the expiration of the $7500 tax credit in September. We described that as “unexpected and curious.” Well, now we have an answer; yesterday, Tesla announced lower-priced models for the Model-Y ($39,900) and -3 ($36,990), which are about 12% lower than the prior entry-level trims (not including the $7500 tax credit), and $5K less than the next level up in trim. While the “hardware” price may not strike one as “irrefuttably compelling,” Tesla has suggested that software/full self driving (FSD) is a more meaningful drivers of its future growth than new vehicle hardware. To this end, Tesla released a software upgrade (V14) on Monday, and FSD costs an additional $8K for both models.


Thomas Paulson

Thomas has been Head of Market Insights since January 2025. Previously, he served as Director of Research and Business Development at Placer.ai, where he was instrumental in providing actionable insights derived from location analytics and the path for expansion into new verticals. His extensive background also includes two decades as a buyside analyst and portfolio manager at Alliance Bernstein, Cornerstone, and others. Prior to that tenure he worked as an economist. Thomas also currently serves as the Co-Chair of the National Association for Business Economics Retail / Consumer Roundtable.